Calling The Horserace

Is it just us here at All Fired Up in the Big Smoke or is everyone covering this municipal campaign running out of gas? With under two weeks to go, it seems the news is now filled only with strategy ploys, endorsements, advertisement assessments and the candidates’ personal foibles. Although, to be fair, some of the candidates’ personal foibles have played a major role throughout the entire 2010 race.

Is this an unsurprising consequence of conducting such a long, long municipal campaign?

Some 40 weeks in and the front runner’s internal polling numbers were the big news story late last week. And guess what? Team Ford has the election in the bag, his victory so big that it’s going to cause a Fordian ripple affect, causing many pro-David Miller councillors to lose their seats. Yes, uh-huh, that’s right. Rob Ford’s got coat tails.

The timing of the poll really should’ve been the story. Ford’s face is on the cover of Macleans magazine with a less than flattering portrayal of the candidate inside. His morning press conference last Friday to paint in further details of economic strategy (ha, ha, ha) is a flop. He leaves staff to answer questions from curious reporters. And then suddenly, ta-dah, as if out of nowhere, their internal poll is released — old news apparently from 2 weeks earlier — showing Ford having increased his lead to almost 50%, pointing towards a landslide victory on October 25th, and a transformation of city council into more Ford Country friendly.

Only a few news organizations ran full-fledged with the story as if it were actually newsworthy (the Toronto Sun and 640 AM on your radio dial). But it dictated the tone and space of other coverage. Was the poll valid? Should we be taking the time to even talking about it? Ooops. We just did. What were we talking about before the poll was released? Oh, right. Rob Ford’s shitty, shitty economic plan.

Yesterday, Joe Pantalone released a proposal to give community councils more say and fiscal control (thus, in theory at least, more power) over certain local aspects of the city’s overall budget. An attempt, it would seem, to bridge the disconnect people are expressing they have with City Hall. Interesting. Let’s take some time to examine it and suss out the merits and—

Too late. Out jumps a poll that suggests Joe Pantalone is nosing up on the 20% mark while Rob Ford’s numbers have dropped back down into the low 30s. And suddenly, it’s now a 3-man race! Looks like a case of Joe-mentum.

But wait. What’s the deal behind the poll? Is it even real? Pantalone campaign manager, John Laschinger, once wrote a book and there’s a quote about making up a fictitious poll in order to breathe life back into a campaign. And what about this company who supposedly conducted the poll, Logit Group? They once were commissioned by Rob Ford for his own dubious poll. Maybe he’s behind this one too, in order to cut away at George Smitherman’s own support.

Speaking of Smitherman, did you hear a handful of former Rocco Rossi staffers are now supporting him?

Truthfully, this is the first campaign that we’ve covered in this kind of depth (as shallow as it may be. You should’ve seen how uninformed we were previously). Maybe this is simply par for the course. Accusations of horse race coverage with other elections are not unusual. Marks given purely on style. Some deducted for trying to introduce substance.

Yet, it’s not too far off the mark to suggest that there has been a general paucity of ideas, a lack of that vision thing, if you will, throughout this entire campaign. The narrative structure was built on a faulty premise or, at least, a grotesquely delusive one of a free spending, insular City Hall who had lost all touch with reality and the people it was supposed to be serving. Feeding anger rather than addressing it.

Where does one take such a distorted view over the course of 10 months or so? By building bigger fabrications and offering questionable solutions to problems that exist nowhere near the degree that’s been claimed. Eventually (hopefully), reality rears its head and forces some sort of step back from the apocalypse. The artificial edifice creaks a little under the ponderous weight of heavy falsehoods and misrepresentations.

But the story is firmly set. Time to talk policy turkey is over. Candidates have found their places and it’s now all about how they finish. Can they close the deal? What are the latest numbers suggesting? I have it on very good authority that…

Rumours and speculation are easier to report and discuss than analysis. That takes time and work. Implications become more obvious in hindsight. There’ll be plenty of time for that after the fact. Four years to be precise. After we all catch up on some sleep. For now, let’s just stay glued to the race and all its crowd-pleasing machinations because it’s sure shaping up to be a real nail biter!

photo finishingly submitted by Cityslikr

Don’t Be A Nader, Ralph

So it seems that the Ralph Nader Sweepstakes are on. People are stating their case and placing their bets on who’s going to play official spoiler in this year’s mayoral election here in Toronto. And the stakes are quite high this time around, too. One bad wager, a slight miscalculation and you know who will become our next mayor…

Joe Pantalone supporters? Do you really want to be the blame for a Rob Ford victory?

A quick recap for those of you groggy from all that turkey tryptophan. Conventional wisdom has it that if Ralph Nader had not run his ridiculously impossible presidential campaign back in 2000 and siphoned off some progressive votes from Al Gore, George Bush would not have won the state of Florida (probably wouldn’t have even been the need for a recount and all those hanging chads etc.) and not become President of the United States. Hoo-rah! Probably no Iraq. No backsliding in terms of the environmental policies. No massive debt.

Ralph Nader and those who supported him have all that to answer for.

When asked afterwards if he regretted his role in bringing about the presidency of George W. Bush, Nader was unrepentant, saying that he saw no difference between the corporate owned entities that were the Democrat and Republican parties. After much sounds of indignant blustering and pointing of fingers at examples of just how bad George Bush was for the country, for the world, Nader is then written off as just some bitter old crank. Yesterday’s man, coasting on past glories and with no eye on the future.

Yet, the Democrats regained both the Senate and the House by 2006, and the White House in 2008 on a surge of hope for change and a massive reversal of the Bush era damage. Now in 2010, one might argue that not a whole lot has changed. A draw down of troops in Iraq hardly constitutes actually ending the war. There are more troops in Afghanistan, the battle has intensified and now become Obama’s war. Environmental agreements in Copenhagen were underwhelming as have been many of Obama’s domestic moves. He staved off a complete economic meltdown but has since been very timid in reworking the economy, leaving in place many of the culprits responsible for the crisis. His healthcare bill was but a shadow of what progressives hoped it would be.

So you might have to excuse Ralph Nader a little if he popped his head in to score himself an I Told You So. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. The only thing keeping that from truly being accurate is the Republican insistence on moving further and further into Crazytown.

A parallel between the situation in 2000 with the U.S. presidential election and our mayoral campaign of 2010 is a little iffy although that hasn’t stopped those petrified at the possibility of a Rob Ford win on October 25th from accusing anyone thinking of backing Joe Pantalone of Naderism. Firstly, as much as the Smithermaneers want to marginalize Pantalone the fact is, Pantalone isn’t some 3rd party, fringe candidate here. Of the four remaining leading contenders he is the only true progressive and thereby represents a huge swath of voters. He is hardly Ralph Nader in this equation.

And George? I’ve seen An Inconvenient Truth. I’ve read The Assault On Reason. And you’re no Al Gore, sir.

But if there is a Naderish role in our election, I’d nominate John Sewell for the position. Like Nader, politically speaking, Sewell is not a major force, representing a small if resolute portion of the voting public. His open endorsement of George Smitherman will hurt Pantalone but perhaps not as much as Joe Mihevic’s move into the Smitherman camp. If the election is really close, even the slightest support from more left of centre voters toward Smitherman could be enough to put him over the top.

The real Sewell-Nader comparison, however, comes with the reason that brought about Sewell’s endorsement of Smitherman. If elected, Smitherman has promised to establish a panel to examine “municipal government” reform that Sewell would head. “I think it’s a spectacular opportunity,” Sewell said. “I congratulate George on it. If that means I’m endorsing him because of it, so be it; that’s fine with me.”

Not a ringing thumbs-up certainly but it makes one wonder if John Sewell was so easily bought – the panel is an unpaid gig that Smitherman said shouldn’t cost more than a pot of coffee – where was the Pantalone team on this? Was municipal reform not high on the candidate’s list? If so, it suggests Pantalone is seriously out of step with progressive grassroots and shouldn’t be expecting a swell of support from them.

“If I can say one thing about Joe Pantalone,” [says Sewell], “he’s representing the position that Toronto’s working well right now. I don’t think a lot of people share that. It’s not an opinion I share.”

While I think that comment may be overly harsh and slightly out of context (Pantalone’s been making that claim in the face of unduly and at times outrageous attacks on how dysfunctional Toronto actually is, some even from the candidate Sewell’s now endorsing), it shouldn’t pass without notice and is reminiscent of Nader’s a plague on both their houses sentiment. If Joe Pantalone wants to take credit for the things that are going right in Toronto because he’s been a part of the process for 30 years, then he should accept the blame for that which isn’t working, and be out campaigning on what he would do as mayor to move forward and fix those things. That includes municipal reform. George Smitherman recognized it and seized the opportunity. Joe Pantalone didn’t.

Like Ralph Nader, John Sewell pulled back the curtain a little and our progressive candidate was shown to be somewhat lacking.

naderly submitted by Cityslikr

Our First Ever Official Endorsement

After last night’s ward 19 council debate held at the Garrison on Dundas Street West, I have come to the conclusion that we’d have much more clarity at the mayoral level if the debates were held in bars. In the backroom of bars. With access to alcoholic beverages.

Formal structures tend to break down and the audience becomes involved. Candidates have to think on their feet especially when pat, pre-packaged answers are noisily shouted down by the crowd. It’s like a trial by fire for the spot they’re campaigning for at City Hall.

The first thing that became clear last night is that we have an embarrassment of riches for council candidates here in ward 19. Of the 9 running to replace outgoing councillor and mayoral candidate Joe Pantalone, three would easily be up to the task, each bringing a fresh, new perspective as the ward’s representative on council. That situation alone makes me more determined than ever to further the cause of a ranked ballot voting system which, oddly enough, few of the candidates spoke up in favour of when asked the question from an audience member.

But at this point, let me tell you who I will not be voting for. Neither Sean McCormick nor Mike Layton. Both men feel like consummate opportunists, stepping forward into an open ward in order to advance their own personal ambition. Former sportscaster McCormick puts a shiny face to anti-City Hall, Ford-esque politics without adding any substance whatsoever. He quickly turned the crowd — which had been rowdy but largely encouraging — ugly when, in answering the question about the Ossington bar and restaurant moratorium, said how the street’s development had been important because as recently as 5 years ago, he and his wife had been afraid to walk there at night. What?! Are we talking about the same Ossington Street? Our Ossington Street?

As for Mike Layton, well, his pedigree may well be as much a hindrance as it is a help. Possessing the unrelenting earnestness of his father with none of the spark of his dad’s wife, Olivia Chow, Layton the younger comes across as a design model for the “perfect” Ward 19 council candidate. The next generation, chip off the old block replicant, he tosses around empty left wing cant as easily and emptily as McCormick does neo-conservative blather. Mike Layton is part of a municipal machine that residents around here seem to be growing weary of. This became painfully obvious when questioned about the mandatory inclusion of school board trustee incumbent, Chris Bolton (himself an object of attack from his opponent earlier in the evening for being part of this same political operation), name on Layton’s lawn signs. Caught flat-footed, Layton hummed and hawed, seeming to be genuinely surprised that anyone who would be voting for him wouldn’t be voting for Chris Bolton as well.

While Layton and McCormick treated each other with a contempt that suggested they believed they were the only two candidates on the ballot, most of the others up on stage with them delivered a genuine passion for public service that elicited unadulterated warm and fuzzies. David Footman again impressed with what is not a blanket anger toward City Hall but a frustration born of experience dealing with its bureaucracy and elected officials. A frustration that suggests things between residents and the city, and small businesses and the city could and should just work better. Not with a massive overhaul but a basic rethinking and retooling of rules and regulations along with simply opening up and easing access to the officials in order to allow a freer flow of thoughts and ideas. Too often, however, during the course of both ward 19 debates that I’ve attended, Mr. Footman has simply shrugged his shoulders at a question asked him because he doesn’t have an answer. While such frankness about ignorance can be endearing in small doses, it suggests to me that Mr. Footman needs to broaden his knowledge base somewhat before expecting people to throw their support behind him.

Which is the complete opposite of candidate George Sawision. A lifetime resident of ward 19, Sawision ran against Pantalone in 2006 and harbours a lingering dislike of the man who seems to be one of the very few people Mr. Sawision bears animosity toward. Mr. Sawision works tirelessly it seems in, at, and around City Hall in an effort to understand the mechanics of municipal governance and to discover ways to make it work better. The guy loves this community and you believe him whole-heartedly when he pledges that if elected ward 10 councillor, he’d be working for the residents not for himself. He already does. If George Sawision possessed fewer libertarian quirks, he’d be hard to ignore as the best choice on the ballot.

A spot taken in our books by Karen Sun. Possessing all the progressive credentials that Mike Layton has with none of the political baggage, Ms. Sun boasts real life experience in implementing her ideals. An organizer, volunteer and committee member, she represents those ideals Toronto needs to embrace if it’s to move forward and maintain its place as a significant city at the core of a vibrant regional economic and societal hub. Diversity, sustainability, innovation, deeper and more inclusive civic involvement, all comprise the basis of Ms. Sun’s campaign and are why she deserves to be ward 19’s next councillor.

Our only concern about Karen Sun is how her youthful, wide-eyed optimism will fare in the shark tank that is city council. But at last night’s debate, she displayed a quiet steeliness that avoided the loud, personal invective that dominated the stage at times. Her positive enthusiasm transcended the bitter tone toward City Hall which has been the trademark of the entire campaign in 2010. So, who knows? Maybe Karen Sun will change city council more than it changes her.

Our one word of advice for Ms. Sun would be, if you’re elected on October 25th, your first move should be to hire both George Sawision and David Footman onto your staff. Mr. Sawision will give you his considerable knowledge about City Hall and the workings of its various departments while Mr. Footman could serve as your enforcer. He seems to have a gritty, no bullshit demeanour that would serve you well. The three of you would make a winning team.

Just throwing it out there.

Karen Sun for city councillor in Ward 19.

dutifully submitted by Cityslikr