What Becomes A Fiscal Conservative Most

With the provincial election in our rear view mirror and the new majority Liberal government ready to get down to the business of governing, haveachatperhaps it’s time to press the reset button on the conversation of fiscal policy. Especially once we kick into municipal campaign gear and everyone starts chattering away again about billion dollar savings, previous year’s surpluses and out of control government spending. Let’s re-examine the conversation on what constitutes good fiscal sense.

Last week David Dodge, former Bank of Canada governor and a Finance Department mucky muck from Pierre Trudeau through to Jean Chretien, suggested that maybe high-octane deficit reduction isn’t necessarily the way governments should be going right now. Yes, that David Dodge. Not some wild-eyed, socialist leaning, CCPA economist, David Dodge. Inflation-hating, deficit fighting, David Dodge.

“It is thus important to realize that in the current environment of low long-term interest rates, fiscal prudence does not require bringing the annual budget balance to zero almost immediately. Small increases in borrowing requirements to finance infrastructure investment would still lead to declines in the debt-to-GDP ratio.”

“Governments should expand their investment in infrastructure while restraining growth in their operating expenditures so as to gradually reduce their public debt-to-GDP ratio.”

That analysis is very different than Diagnosis: Austerity which every self-proclaimed fiscal conservative is demanding and touting texaschainsawmassacreas inevitable these days. Take on some additional debt, start spending money on much needed infrastructure (a deficit estimated in 2012 at $123 billion at the municipal level), hold the line on other operational expenditures and try to grow the economy rather than cut, cut, cutting into shape.

I didn’t see any pitch for lowering taxes. No drastic reduction in the civil service. Reasonable suggestions devoid of tough talk about tough choices.

The irony is not lost on me that the source of our current infrastructure needs can be traced back, at least in part, to the war waged on the federal deficit back in the mid-90s featuring none other than David Dodge, then a senior level Finance department bureaucrat. Downloads to the provinces, cuts in transfer payments, all managed to trickle down to cutbacks in spending on new infrastructure projects and the neglect of that already built and in place. There’s a little bit of the inflictor of damage stepping forward with his trowel and pail of cement, whome1offering to help repair the shit he knocked over.

Hell, I don’t even know if David Dodge is right but he’s presenting an alternative to what’s being sold to us as the only way to get ourselves back into the black. Austerity. An approach implemented elsewhere without any satisfactory results to show for it yet. If we just cut a little bit deeper, a little faster, we can stop this ship from sinking, this ship is sinking…

So when the federal government gets all sanctimonious about Ontario’s out-of-control deficit, and the need to introduce harsh measures to rein it in, we can just respond, But David Dodge said… Or if the provincial Liberals cite budgetary concerns for not, say, electrifying the GO corridor or building a particular LRT line, we can respond, But David Dodge said…

This is important to remember at the municipal level too. Although cities can’t run annual operating budget deficits (as per legislation from another, deficit-plagued level of government), there’s always the question of what to do with the inevitable operating surpluses that arise. If a municipal government is budgeting properly, there should always be an operating surplus.

Our current administration at City Hall has proudly puffed out its chest at the fact it’s used its operating surpluses to pay down capital debt and keep taxes low. areyousure2Meanwhile, the state of good repair for the TTC and TCHC continues to grow. The roads and parks are just a little worse for wear. And the city’s credit rating remains unchanged from the so-called profligate days of David Miller.

Fiscal responsibility doesn’t mean being cheap or simply hating the concept of government spending money. It means making smart decisions, decisions based on the reality of the day and not some theoretical exercise that looks great on a blackboard and fits neatly into an ideology. There’s no one way to be a fiscal conservative except for, maybe, a right and wrong way.

sensibly submitted by Cityslikr

Sore Losing

One last thing about Thursday’s provincial election… OK, maybe one last thing for now… onemorethingYou know… we’ll see.

If nothing else, the reaction to the Liberal win from the two main parties (and their supporters) that went down to defeat serves as valid justification for having not voted for them.

Ousted from the Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding he’d claimed only last year in a by-election, Doug Holyday summed up the reason for the loss. Union attack ads. A conservative politician bemoaning his fate at the hands of attack ads. Imagine that.

For its part, the NDP were still smarting from the perceived betrayal by the traitor within its own ranks during the campaign. When 3 MPPs from Toronto lost on election night, it was all, see what you went and did, you bunch of Judases? You got played, dumbasses. Here, let me help clean that egg off your faces.

Whatever happened to taking responsibility?

I mean, the NDP and PCs presented their respective platforms from a campaign strategy “…developed over years” as NOW’s Susan G. Cole stated. blameothersThey took it to the electorate over some 40 days. Here, voters. This is who we are and what we’ll do if we form the next government. Vote for us.

The dice were rolled and came up snake eyes for the two opposition parties. For reasons that can only superficially be explained at this early juncture, Ontarians rejected the PC and NDP bids (based, of course, on a first past the post model) and gave the Liberals a majority mandate. The vagaries of democracy, eh?

Now, a noble person, full of humility, would, at least publicly, accept the loss as the result of the wisdom of the masses. It’s not necessarily that they were wrong and the public right on any particular issue. The messaging didn’t work, this time around. Or maybe, it was just the messenger who failed to click with people, failed to tell a compelling story.

Take your pick but, my god, take responsibility.

One particularly condescending bit of unwillingness to accept defeat graciously came from a chorus of conservative commentators. blameothers2Pampered and entitled voters refused to take the dose of tough medicine needed to turn things around in this province. So this line of reasoning went.

Aside from the various mad scribblings to this effect inside the Toronto Sun, the Globe and Mail’s Marcus Gee put on his somber face. “Investment may be good for Toronto,” he wrote. “A provincial government that continues to go into debt is not.” Further, “While she [Premier Wynne] carried the day by arguing in the campaign that it is wrong-headed to cut the way to success, it is it is unclear what answers she has for the broader Ontario problem.”

“Wrong-headed” but not necessarily wrong to think, like Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservatives, that you can cut your way to success.

In other words, enjoy your victory lap, Liberals. blameothers1Your day of reckoning is at hand.

The National Post’s Matt Gurney took it one step further, assuaging the troubled minds of conservatives with the soothing assurances that, it hardly mattered who won the election, the tough choices were coming whether the Liberals like it or not. “If Ontario is to maintain any fiscal credibility, and avoid ruinous ratings cuts,” he writes, “there is significant austerity ahead.”

While the Progressive Conservative platform was unpalatable for voters in Ontario, it is inevitable. Like night following day, fall following summer, austerity is coming, folks. It doesn’t matter who’s in power.

Mr. Gurney may be right. The Liberals may accept that reality as it’s being pitched. Certainly there were dark utterings of austerity measures being loaded into the back end of the budget that brought the Liberals down in May and that they have pledged to bring back post haste.

But my question to him over the weekend, and to all the others singing from that same neocon songbook, was why? There’s no question the province’s fiscal fitness is worrisome. The economy remains fragile. Our debt level is high. But where is it written that austerity is the only way out of this? I’ve pleaded for austerimaniacs to point me to an example where it has worked. blameothers3The response so far? A shrug.

So maybe voters in Ontario didn’t reject the conservative bad news reality because they were unwilling to face up to the harsh facts of life. Maybe they just didn’t accept the premise. Maybe they weren’t prepared to go down that brutish road of untested economic theory. Especially since the alleged upside, the million jobs that would be created, was, well, maybe not that robust. A claim, based as it was, on faulty math. Or “glitches” as the National Post’s editorial board referred to it in its endorsement of Tim Hudak.

We all know from our own personal experiences that being rejected is tough. It’s difficult to accept the fact that you didn’t measure up. Despite your best intentions and firmest belief in them, your plans just did not work out.

When that happens, though, we don’t really indulge the impulse to blame others for the failure. It tends to lead to a narrowing of vision, a hardening of conviction, a wobbly sense of certainty and confidence. What we really should expect is that, in the face of defeat, we go through a period of reassessment and rethinking. What did I do right? Where do I go wrong? lookinthemirror3What could I have done differently to bring about a different outcome?

Going back to the drawing board, as they say.

But it’s hard to correct any mistakes you might have made when you refuse to admit mistakes were made in the first place. It seems at this point of time, the PCs and NDP are refusing to make the tough choice necessary in acknowledging that they fell short again this time, and the culprit for that is looking straight at them in the mirror. That is, if they decide they really need to have a look in it.

honestly submitted by Cityslikr

Well, That Didn’t Work, Did It

I guess this is one of those J. Walter Weatherman times for the NDP, where they need to be taught a valuable life/political lesson.

jwalterweatherman

… And that’s why you never get outflanked on the left by the Liberal party!

About 10 days, two weeks ago I began hearing from various corners of NDP support that the Liberal budget they brought down which sparked this election wasn’t, in fact, all that progressive. There were all sorts of austerity measures tucked away, out of sight, somewhere in the back. It was just another example of Liberals campaigning left before they shifted back right once they got elected to office.

whatimeantwasTo which many responded: WHY DIDN’T YOU START WITH THAT?!

Why didn’t you come out of the blocks presenting yourself as the only viable progressive alternative to an unethical government that was clearly more interested in maintaining its own hold on power than it was in governing properly?

What we got instead from the outset was a whole lot of jargon-y talk that had a whiff of the Common Sense Revolution and Rob Ford’s Gravy Train run. Respect for Ontarians. Hardworking families. Pocketbook issues. Looking after tax dollars. Mom and pop.

And then when the actual real life conservatives bared their fangs and scared the shit out of every voter with a moderate bone in their body, many threw their support behind the party which had spent the campaign distinguishing itself from the hideousness of the PCs rather than the one that chose to play the conservate-lite card.

Look, NDP.

No matter what you do or say. No matter how twisted your ideological contortions are. overlookedTrue blue conservatives are never going to vote for you to a degree that will offset your loss in base support in trying to woo them. Disaffected PC voters will either hold their nose and vote Liberal or chose to stay home before they’d even think of voting NDP.

I mean, look at the three daily newspapers in Toronto, three of them sitting on the right side of the political spectrum. Zero endorsements for the NDP. The Toronto Sun was the most generous before giving their entirely predictably thumbs up for the Tories. The NDP didn’t even register a mention in the National Post’s endorsement of Tim Hudak.

Where the NDP lost seats, they lost them to the Liberals and they lost them in Toronto. They only succeeded in taking one seat from the Progressive Conservatives. Their forward push to the right stalled while their defensive protection on the left faltered. It didn’t collapse as some feared but the strategy netted them nothing more than a standstill. calculating1A standstill with a loss of influence as they no longer hold the balance of power with a Liberal majority government now in place.

Only in light of the two or three wheels coming off the Progressive Conservative wagon does the NDP lack of progress seem less disappointing. The fact is, they remain the third place party. Their base of support lies deep in 4 regions of the province but not very wide. Andrea Horwath convinced too few voters that the party she led had much populist, small-c cred while alienating too many traditional supporters with her willingness to ignore issues important to them.

Political calculation is a tough business. While you can limit yourself with a campaign only appealing to your base (see, Tim Hudak and Rob Ford), taking it for granted doesn’t seem like a very good strategy either. Progressive politicians and parties regularly seem to operate under the assumption their supporters will dutifully follow them as they venture out to court new voters in their pursuit of power, no matter how many of their core values they offer up in sacrifice.

circularfiringsquadGiven the results of yesterday’s provincial election, they may want to rethink that approach.

disgruntledly submitted by Cityslikr